Macro Headwinds Supply Supply-Demand Stalemate SHFE Tin Under Pressure in Afternoon Session [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the morning of November 5, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2512 contract showed a pattern of dipping lower before rebounding. It opened at 283,550 yuan/mt, down 1,060 yuan from the previous trading day, then remained in the doldrums. By the midday close, the price hovered around 281,760 yuan/mt, with the loss widening to 2,850 yuan. Overnight, LME tin closed at $35,670/mt, down $245 or 0.68%. During today's Asian trading session, it fluctuated around the $35,675 level, with upside resistance seen near $36,050/mt.

Today's decline in tin prices was mainly driven by strong pressure on the macro front. Although the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, Chairman Powell sent hawkish signals, suggesting no further rate cuts within the year, which caused the US dollar index to surge strongly, climbing back above the 100 mark, while US Treasury yields also rose. The return of the strong dollar put pressure on all dollar-denominated nonferrous metals, prompting investors to take profits and sell off collectively. At the same time, the US federal government shutdown and the blackout of economic data sharply heightened fears of liquidity risks, further intensifying cautious market sentiment.

Overall, although tightening supply and growing emerging demand provide core support, in the short term, tin prices are dominated by cautious macro sentiment and constrained by weak traditional demand, limiting upside room. This afternoon, attention should be paid to movements in the US dollar index and shifts in market sentiment. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to remain in the doldrums, with support below watched at the key 280,000 yuan/mt level.